To see whether a sector will gradually resume activity or not, 3 criteria must be checked:
- Risk of transmission (including the ease of implementing mitigation measures)
- Expected impact on the sector of continued lockdown (including prior vulnerability)
- Value of the sector to the economy (e.g. contribution to GDP, multiplier effects, export earnings)
NB - The criteria themselves are ranked subject to their priority.
Sectors where there is a low risk of transmission, or where it can be easily mitigated, that will also suffer the most from continued lockdown and that contributes a high value to the economy, will be prioritized.
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Economic value at risk
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Sectoral contribution to GDP
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Employment
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Export earnings (fx)
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Prevalence of SMEs and informal sector
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Linkages to the rest of the economy
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Is it an enabling industry?
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Transmission risks
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Nature of work
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Profile of workforce
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Geographic location of workforce
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Practical mitigation measures
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Feasibility of mitigation measures
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Economic stress
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Not presently operating
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Facing imminent retrenchment
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Facing imminent firm closures
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Facing permanent and irreversible damage
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Jobs at stake
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Industries that return to work first should:
- Have acceptably low transmission risk (or be able to attain this through mitigation measures) and
- Be of critical value to the economy or
- Be under severe near-term economic stress
This article is based on an extract from a draft government document